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Has the Recession “Bottomed Out”?

This week’s media has been filled with stories about the Dow’s 9% increase, GM’s refusal of the next installment of its bailout money, Citibank’s report of being in the black so far this year, and banks’ requests to return TARP money.

So with all this good news, does it mean that the recession has “bottomed out,” and that things will start getting better again?

In a word, no. (Sadly.)

Unemployment continues to rise. GM’s having enough money for March doesn’t mean the balance sheet will look significantly better in April (and it is still asking for the multi-billion bailout through the end of this year). Citibank’s income so far (as the ads go) is no guarnatee of future performance. And the structural cracks in our economy don’t appear to be healing any time soon. (See “The Coming Meltdown,” my series of articles on the large-scale problems in the auto industry, insurance, mortgage/real estate, and consumer credit markets.)

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